Savings professionals in UK banks don’t expect base rate change in February

UK banks and building societies don’t foresee a Bank of England base rate move in February, according to a new industry poll published today by Flagstone, the UK’s leading cash savings platform*.

In its inaugural bank panel poll, Flagstone surveyed savings professionals at over 50 of the UK banks and building societies that provide savings accounts to Flagstone’s 600,000 savings platform customers to gauge the banks’ interest rate expectations and the rationale behind their predictions.

• 95% of respondents said that the Bank of England will hold the base rate at 5.25% when the Monetary Policy Committee makes its next rate decision on Thursday 1 February 2024;
• The remaining 5% predict a decrease on account of faster-than-expected slowdown in wage growth;
• None of the banks and building societies polled expect rates to rise.

Commenting on this near-universal opinion, Simon Merchant, co-founder & CEO of Flagstone, said:

“The recent uptick in inflation from 3.9% to 4.0% has put paid to any expectations by UK banks that the base rate might start to drop in the very near term. The consensus among these institutions is clear: stubborn inflation and the need for more comprehensive economic data mean that it’s prudent for the Bank of England to maintain the current base rate. With inflation still above target and market expectations leaning towards stability, any significant rate changes seem unlikely in the immediate future.

“Stubborn inflation may be to blame for shifting predictions on when interest rates might change again, but it continues to create a buoyant time for consumers to rediscover the high-performance, low-risk savings options on offer and make their money work harder.”

Bank respondents were invited to provide further perspective behind their predictions. Anonymised comments include:

“Stubborn inflation is the key factor. It will be way too early if the Bank of England moves towards a decrease. This would be read as a signal of monetary easing and inflation may start to increase again.”

“The possibility of further inflationary spikes … remains at the forefront of central bank thinking. Markets seem to think cuts are coming, but volatility in swap pricing shows how precarious it is to second-guess base rate moves.”

“Rates will be cut but not at the next meeting while inflation is at 4%. The remit of the Bank of England is inflation controlling only and not to appease the markets.”

* Based on number of banks and savings accounts on the platform, and Trustpilot customer review ratings (4.6/5)

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